How often, if ever, does a high school quarterback get scholarship offers after starting just his senior year?

This question is for those very familiar with football recruiting. A prospect I know has a dream of playing Division 1 football for 1 of the top SEC football teams. Just wondering if schools of this caliber would consider a prospect who is currently a junior, but looks to be the starter next year after playing back-up with limited time the past 2 years. Most say he is better than the current senior qb, but the high school is very commited to seniority/loyalty to the seniors. It’s debatable, but I think he does have a better arm. He plays in an area that is not rich in talent, historically, where a small % of players go on to play college football. Does this guy have a shot at a scholarship at a big time D-1 school…if not, would a D-2 or D-3 give him money? Thanks for the expert advice….really just wondering how often players get scholarship money offers with only 1 year starting experience, but good potential? I’ve heard Ben Roethlistburger is an example of this?